Iraqis bracing for war's
aftermath
By Scott Peterson,
The Christian Science Monitor
Date: 10/18/2002
(BAGHDAD, IRAQ) The son of Samir Jawad picked at a pomegranate, as the
Iraqi mother of nine spoke of living hand-to-mouth - and the
results for her family if an American war in Iraq shuts down food
handouts here.
"We depend 100 percent on this food ration," says Mrs. Jawad, pulling
her black draping head shawl tight around her chin. "We have only five
to six days of food in reserve. God will provide - but without this
food, we would die."
To build up some local reserves - and forestall the kind of food riots
that accompanied the 1991 Gulf War - Iraq has been handing out food in
advance. Officials in August distributed rations for two months; did
the same in September; and in early October gave away three-months
worth - the ration all the way to February. Those handouts included
only 25 percent of the key protein - lentils - because of regional
supply problems.
The UN Children's Fund (UNICEF) reports that "an almost total
dependency has developed among Iraqi households on the food ration."
"If that food basket does not reach the family, it's like taking 60 to
90 percent of their salary away," says Carel de Rooy, the UNICEF
representative for Iraq. "The whole society is on heavy, heavy welfare."
The oil-for-food deal slowed a steep decline in living standards for
Iraq, which has seen infant mortality rates more than double in the
last decade. But family reserves are now depleted.
"I've been in households where you had to sit on the floor, because
people sold off their furniture," says Mr. de Rooy. "It is very clear:
People don't have the same ability to cope as they did in 1991."
The silver lining, the UN and relief agencies say, is that they have
been aware the possibility of war for months, and so are making
preparations. Still, the agencies make clear that Iraqis are living far
closer to the bone today than they were in 1991 - and that the
political signals coming from Washington indicate that the scale of any
new war is likely to be vast and destructive.
"A war on Iraq will immediately result in a humanitarian catastrophe,"
says Alexander Christof, head of the German agency Architects for
People in Need, one of just a handful of agencies here. Planning for
everything from emergency mobile water purification units to kits to
treat thousands of war wounded, the agencies have formed a "Disaster
Management Team" that is planning to minimize the human cost of war.
Already Iraqi society has been strained by the Iran-Iraq war of the
1980s, the 1991 Gulf War, and by 12 years of the strictest United
Nations sanctions ever applied. "And now it ends in another war," says
Mr. Christof. "[Iraqi] suffering will increase 500 to 1000 percent. I'm
not sure they have the energy to get through it."
Agencies are calculating that - like the Gulf War and the Kosovo
conflict in 1999 - within hours of the start of any air campaign, US
pilots will knock out Iraq's electricity grid. Water will stop flowing;
sewage disposal - run by underground pump stations - will cease;
hospitals and other electricity-dependent services will stop
functioning.
Food imports for distribution to all 24 million Iraqis will also end.
As gas and diesel supplies dry up, Iraqis will have to venture out, as
they did in 1991, by bicycle.
Jawad's family is a typical case: A school notebook lists material
needed by her hospitalized 7-year-old son, Zein al-Abidine, which Jawad
can't afford. From the southern city of Najaf, she has come to Baghdad
for Zein's treatment.
Difficult as her life may be in peacetime, it could become critically
complicated if US bombing starts, and stretches from the city of Kirkuk
in the north, to Basra in the south.
"They can't absorb any more problems - nobody is equipped on the
humanitarian front," says Marcus Dolder, head of the Iraq delegation of
the International Committee of the Red Cross. His experience stretches
from the Gulf War to Chechnya, Bosnia, Rwanda and two years in
Afghanistan before coming to Iraq. "The effects of war will be quick
and very dramatic on these people."
Unlike in Afghanistan, where there has never been any infrastructure to
speak of, Iraq is vulnerable to power failure. An oil-rich country, the
regime of Saddam Hussein - before smothering his nation in the
Iran-Iraq war - invested heavily in state-of-the-art services like
hospitals, water treatment and sewage facilities the 1970s and early
1980s.
Potable water is a "crucial first priority," Mr. Dolder says, in a
country that expends half a million tons of sewage into the waterways
daily. But while agencies are working out plans for mobile filtering
systems and tanker distribution, another danger is the sewer system.
Because of vulnerable pumping stations and the erratic pressure in
water mains - which means that leaking pipes can suck in pollutants,
and deliver sewage to the tap - agencies are concerned about health
problems.
Even in peacetime, UN figures show that the average Iraqi child has 15
cases of diarrhea a year. In Iraq's sticky and sweltering climate,
preventing epidemics is key. The ICRC is organizing water tankers and
generators, and importing wound-treatment kits for thousands of people.
"The hospitals have the ability to maintain activities for two weeks -
after that it is finished," says Vincent Hubin, the country director
for the French agency Premiere Urgence. His staff are rushing to
restore blood banks and supply hospital bedding and other needs.
"We are pushing every day to finish," Mr. Hubin says. The government is
stocking up fuel, generators, and "giving out maximum medical supplies
in order to keep the hospitals alive."
While issuing the warning, the agencies are also asking for funds for
their preparations. "All donors will give money once bombs start to
fall," says Hubin. "The problem for all [agencies], is that we have
clear plans, but not a penny for disaster preparedness."
Many Iraqis say they remember the Gulf War experience, when a 42-day
bombing campaign was followed by a 100-hour US-led ground attack, and
anti-government uprisings.
"It was very difficult - we had to operate by candle light," recalls
Dr. Murtada Hassan, the chief hematologist at the Mansur Hospital in
Baghdad. "Many things were damaged, like vaccines and blood supplies,
because the temperature in Iraq is hot, even in the winter."
While he is pleased that generators are being furnished for his
hospital, he says: "Even the generators can't work forever, because the
gas and benzine will be finished."
(c) Copyright 2002 The Christian Science Monitor. All rights reserved.
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